Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.348489 0.397153 0.449994 0.511611 0.581473 0.658210 0.748883
2025-09-07 0.283409 0.349130 0.425997 0.522466 0.640249 0.779337 0.956052
2025-09-14 0.221707 0.293268 0.382841 0.503036 0.659985 0.857875 1.126324
2025-09-21 0.180151 0.254667 0.354022 0.495902 0.693071 0.957191 1.337813
2025-09-28 0.147138 0.221407 0.326482 0.485536 0.719816 1.051865 1.558057
2025-10-05 0.128444 0.204854 0.319087 0.501616 0.785354 1.209010 1.889217
2025-10-12 0.109391 0.184362 0.302448 0.501032 0.825812 1.335109 2.193622
2025-10-19 0.095249 0.169101 0.291282 0.506871 0.876669 1.483782 2.554836
2025-10-26 0.084850 0.158223 0.285365 0.520095 0.941153 1.662799 2.991325
2025-11-02 0.071631 0.140066 0.264069 0.503202 0.951023 1.750869 3.284732
2025-11-09 0.059584 0.121949 0.239908 0.477099 0.939959 1.799911 3.514574
2025-11-16 0.051571 0.110214 0.225732 0.467377 0.957618 1.902901 3.858097
2025-11-23 0.044421 0.099240 0.211808 0.456998 0.974561 2.011020 4.236326
2025-11-30 0.040155 0.093600 0.207796 0.466318 1.033052 2.209583 4.826834
2025-12-07 0.034251 0.083284 0.192277 0.448658 1.032168 2.287474 5.179636
2025-12-14 0.030064 0.076136 0.182505 0.442080 1.054446 2.417469 5.664737
2025-12-21 0.026295 0.069280 0.172253 0.432676 1.068807 2.532222 6.133485
2025-12-28 0.024446 0.066844 0.171985 0.446932 1.140751 2.786783 6.961680
2026-01-04 0.021997 0.062402 0.166087 0.446333 1.176599 2.962468 7.628789
2026-01-11 0.020124 0.059153 0.162665 0.451490 1.227724 3.182151 8.436802
2026-01-18 0.018744 0.057016 0.161796 0.463254 1.297850 3.458832 9.430072
2026-01-25 0.016437 0.051768 0.151667 0.448144 1.293983 3.546889 9.946665
2026-02-01 0.014135 0.046086 0.139360 0.424823 1.263821 3.561839 10.270465